Algorithmically predicting the results of the 2019 Rugby World Cup

Data visualisation and prediction algorithm for the 2019 Rugby World Cup

I've been working on a rugby prediction algorithm for a while now. My basic premise is that the World Rugby rankings are a good indicator of past performance, but don't give the full picture when predicting future results. I've already visualised my predictions based on form alone, and the results look reasonable - so is there room for improvement?

My hypothesis is that a more accurate prediction can be made if we take into account short-term form and past performance against specific opponents.

With this in mind, my new model combines four key metrics:

  1. All-time performance - as shown by current world ranking
  2. Recent Form: tier 1 - how well have the team performed in their last 10 matches against tier 1 opposition.
  3. Recent Form: tier 2 - how well have the team performed in their last 10 matches against tier 2 opposition.
  4. History against opponent - how well have the team performed against the specific opponent we're predicting the result for?

There's obviously plenty more that I can add to this algorithm, but with the World Cup actually starting soon (tomorrow, at time of writing), I've got a hard deadline for "just shipping" whatever I've got.

The predictions



Related posts

If you enjoyed this article, RoboTom 2000™️ (an LLM-powered bot) thinks you might be interested in these related posts:

Rugby prediction: retrospective

Data visualisation and prediction algorithm for the 2019 Rugby World Cup

Similarity score: 81% match . RoboTom says:

Using world ranking to predict the results of the 2019 Rugby World Cup pool stages

Data visualisation for the pool stages of the 2019 Rugby World Cup

Similarity score: 80% match . RoboTom says:

Newer post:

Rugby prediction: retrospective

Published on


Signup to my newsletter

Join the dozens (dozens!) of people who get my writing delivered directly to their inbox. You'll also hear news about my miscellaneous other projects, some of which never get mentioned on this site.